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1Over the past 30 years the demography of South European countries, such as Greece, Italy and Spain, has been defined by two major events. First, since the 1980s period fertility has decreased sharply, reaching extremely low levels, termed “lowest-low” fertility by Kohler, Billari and Ortega (2002), within just a few years. Second, these traditional emigration countries have been transformed into immigrant destinations, experiencing significant migrant inflows since the 1990s, mainly from eastern and central Europe as well as from less developed Asian and African regions. In this context, an important question arises: will the increasing numbers of foreign women from high fertility countries “compensate” up to a point for the very low fertility rates of the national populations?

2The case of foreign fertility in Greece remains largely unexplored. It was not until 2004, the year in which the relevant data first became available, that it became possible to evaluate the relative contribution of foreign women to changes in the period fertility of the total population. We can now establish a coherent picture of the effects of the composition of the foreign population and its childbearing behaviour on demographic developments in Greece, particularly in response to the severe economic crisis that has affected the country’s economy and welfare since 2008. The present study thus has two main objectives: first, to assess fertility levels and trends of foreign women in Greece and their contribution to the overall period fertility over the period 2004-2012; and second, to evaluate the relative contribution of the fertility behaviour of foreign women aged 15-49 in relation to fertility trends of the total population. To achieve the latter, decomposition analysis is used to separate effects due to changes in foreign fertility from those related to changes in the share of foreign women in the total female population of reproductive age.

I – Background

3Greece became a receiving country in the course of the 1990s. At the 1991 census, 1.6% of the Greek population were foreign citizens; this proportion then increased substantially, reaching 7.0% in 2001 (762,191 persons) and 8.4% in 2011 (911,929 persons). Foreign women aged 15-49 represented 8.8% of the female population of reproductive ages in 2001, rising to 11.5% in 2011; about half of these (50.4%) are Albanians, 10.4% are citizens of Asian countries, 1.9% are from Africa and 29.0% from eastern Europe, mainly Bulgaria, Romania and Poland.

4While foreign citizens have comprised a sizeable proportion of the overall population since 1991, previous analyses provide no more than fragmentary evidence regarding levels and trends of foreign fertility in Greece because the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) did not compile data on births by citizenship of the mother before 2004. Before that year, the only information on levels of foreign fertility is derived from the question on children ever born in the 2001 census of Greece and reflects the fertility of cohorts who may have started their reproductive lives in their country of origin (Bagavos et al. 2008). For the period 2005-2006, Kotzamanis and Sofianopoulou (2008) estimated a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.21 children per woman for foreigners (2.54 among Albanians whose births represented 61% of foreign births), with foreign births accounting for around 17% of total births in that period. These estimates are very close to those of Tsimbos (2008) for the same period, although slightly higher. Lanzieri’s (2013) TFR estimates for foreign women for 2009-2011 indicate a downward trend, with the rates decreasing from 2.87 to 2.26 children per woman. Nevertheless, the relative contribution of the foreign population and its fertility to the overall fertility of Greece has not been estimated.

5However, a number of studies have explored the relative contribution of the rising numbers of either migrants or foreigners in the fertility rates of several European countries, such as England and Wales, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark but also Italy and Spain (Basten et al., 2013; Gabrielli et al., 2007; Goldstein et al., 2009; Héran and Pison, 2007; Sobotka 2008; Toulemon, 2004; Toulemon and Mazuy, 2004; Vila and Martin, 2007). Though immigrants in several countries seem to add substantially to the total number of births, making in some instances a contribution of about 15-20%, the “net effect” of high immigrant fertility on the period TFR of most European countries seems rather minor, ranging between 0.03 and 0.13 children per woman (Basten et al., 2013; Sobotka, 2008). Only at regional level, in areas with a high density of migrants can a greater “input” be detected; for instance in Vienna the contribution of immigrant fertility was estimated at 0.28 children per woman (Zeman et al., 2011). In terms of fertility levels, while immigrant women in some countries such as Austria, Germany and Spain still exhibit higher fertility than natives, their TFRs are below replacement level; in the Netherlands, immigrant period fertility has converged to the local level whereas in Denmark it has fallen below it (Basten et al., 2013).

6Regarding the relative contribution of immigrants or foreigners to changes in fertility levels over time, Van Landschoot et al. (2014) suggest that the increase in the TFR observed in the Flemish regions of Belgium over 2001-2008 is mainly due to increasing fertility of native women aged 30 or higher. In Italy and Spain, where TFRs had reached lowest-low levels in 1994-1996, the subsequent slight increases have been attributed partly to foreigners. More specifically, in Italy, where the TFR of foreign women is about double that of Italian women, Gabrielli et al. (2007) suggest that the 0.114 children per woman increase over 1996-2004 is attributable to an increase in the fertility of Italian women aged 30 or higher (38%) and a combination of rising fertility of foreign women (33%) and of their increasing share in the female population of reproductive ages (29%). By contrast, in Spain, where the TFR of foreign women decreased from 2.3 to 1.7 children per woman over that period, the fertility increase was due to rising proportions of foreign women among the female population aged 15-49 (since the TFR of foreigners is still higher than that of Spanish women) and an increase in the fertility of Spanish women aged 30 or higher.

II – Data and methods

7For administrative, legislative and statistical purposes, the Greek authorities identify the foreign population based on the notion of citizenship (Ministry of the Interior, 2016); this definition has been used in the present study as well. Further, the process of naturalization seems to be rather limited in Greece (Emke-Poulopoulou, 2007).

8Two sets of data were used to estimate period fertility indicators by citizenship for the years 2004 to 2012: births by five-year age group and citizenship of the mother on the one hand; and the average female population by five-year age group and citizenship on the other. Births by citizenship are available from 2004 onwards (ELSTAT, 2014) whereas information about the mid-year female population by age and citizenship over the period 2004-2008 is lacking and had to be estimated by the authors (see Appendix).

1 – Estimating the contribution of foreign women to annual TFR

9In the following equations, F and N denote foreigners and nationals respectively, B births, P the population, S the ratio of (foreign or national) women to the total number of women, and x age. TFRCF and ASFRCF (expressed in number of children per woman) are the contributions of foreign women to, respectively, the total fertility rates and the age specific fertility rates (ASFRx) of the total population.

10We obtain:

12The relative contribution to the TFR is thus:

14which is quite close to the contribution of foreigners to the total number of births:

16Further, the relative contribution of foreigners to the total ASFR at age x is:

18In fact, the contribution of foreigners to the TFR of the total population relies on two components (Bagavos, 2015). Firstly, foreigners increase the overall level of a country’s TFR through the combined effect of their “excess” fertility with respect to the TFR of native women and of their share in the total population of reproductive age. This contribution is simply estimated as the difference between the TFR of the total population and that of native women (net effect). This is the most common component appearing in the majority of studies (Basten et al., 2013; Goldstein et al., 2009; Héran and Pison, 2007; Sobotka 2008). Secondly, if the TFR of foreign women is equal to that of natives, then their fertility has no impact on the country’s TFR, but their fertility increases the proportion of births to foreign women among total births. Usually, this second component is neglected by demographers. These two ways in which foreign women contribute to fertility – by increasing the country’s TFR or by raising the share of the TFR attributable to foreign births – explain why it is possible, as we will see in our study, for the fertility of foreign women to have a rather moderate effect on a country’s TFR but a measurable effect on overall fertility trends.

2 – Decomposing the contribution of foreign women to changes in TFR between two years: fertility behaviour versus population composition

19The TFR of the total population is:

21The decomposition of change (Δ) in the TFR of the total population between two years (e.g. 2004 and 2009) is simply given by (Bagavos, 2015):

23which can also be expressed as follows:

25where:

  • equation im8 is the effect of changes in foreign fertility;
  • equation im9 is the effect of changes in native fertility;
  • equation im10 is the effect of changes in the ratio of foreign women to the total number of women;
  • equation im11 is the effect of changes in the ratio of native women to the total number of women;
  • equation im12 is the interaction effect of the changes in fertility and in population composition.

26The interaction effect usually accounts for less than 3% of the overall change in TFR. In addition, it can be proportionally distributed across the four other components (Kitagawa, 1955). This option has been followed in this paper.

III – Results

1 – Fertility levels and trends of Greek and foreign women, 2004-2012

27Table 1 shows TFRs for Greece for the period 2004-2012 for Greek women, foreign women, and the overall population. Estimates by Eurostat (2014a) at national level are also presented for the whole period and by Lanzieri (2013) for Greek and foreign women for the period 2009-2011. The Eurostat estimates are very similar to our figures, while those of Lanzieri are nearly identical to our estimates for the Greek population but indicate slightly higher fertility among foreigners. The TFR for the whole population of Greece remained at quite low levels throughout the period, exhibiting first an increase over 2004-2009, from 1.30 children per woman to 1.51, and a subsequent decline to 1.37 in 2012. The TFR of Greek women started off at lower levels (1.23 children per woman), peaked over 2008-2010 (TFR 1.37-1.38) but decreased somewhat thereafter. Fertility among foreign women followed a broadly similar trend but at substantially higher levels, ranging from 1.87 to 2.80 children per woman.

Table 1

Annual TFR estimates for the period 2004-2012 for nationals, foreigners and the overall population of Greece

Table 1
TFR 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Authors’ estimates Greeks Foreigners Overall 1.23 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.33 1.31 1.93 1.97 2.13 2.20 2.62 2.80 2.54 2.23 1.87 1.30 1.33 1.39 1.40 1.49 1.51 1.51 1.43 1.37 Lanzieri’s estimates Greeks Foreigners 1.38 1.38 1.32 2.87 2.58 2.26 Eurostat estimates Overall 1.30 1.32 1.40 1.38 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.39 1.34

Annual TFR estimates for the period 2004-2012 for nationals, foreigners and the overall population of Greece

Sources: Authors’ estimates based on ELSTAT data (2014) and Eurostat data (2014a-2014f), Lanzieri (2013) and Eurostat (2014a).

28These TFRs suggest that two sub-periods of Greek fertility trends can be distinguished: the period 2004-2009, characterized by an increasing trend both for foreigners and nationals, and the period 2009-2012 where a decrease is apparent. These changes are more pronounced among foreign women, who present a 45.0% increase followed by a 33.2% decline; the respective percentages for Greek women are more modest, 11.4% and 4.4%. For the overall period, however, a slight decrease of 3.1% is observed among foreign women but an increase of 6.5% among nationals.

2 – Contribution of foreign women to period fertility levels and changes over time

29The proportion of foreign births in the period 2004-2012 peaked at 18.9% in 2009 and reached a low at 15.4% in 2012 (Table 2). Foreign women’s excess fertility follows a similar pattern, varying from 0.6 to 1.4 children per woman on average. However, due to the small proportion of foreign women of reproductive ages (below 12%), the contribution of foreigners to the overall TFR (i.e. the difference between the overall TFR and that of Greek women) is rather moderate, ranging from 0.06 to 0.14 children per woman (4.4% to 9.3%). Their age-specific contribution, on the other hand, is very different, however, as foreign women have a much younger fertility schedule (Figure 1); hence, their share is maximum at ages 15-19 (32% to 45%) and minimum at ages above 30 (around 10%).

Table 2

Contribution of foreign women to the overall TFR and to the total number of births in Greece

Table 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Foreign births (%) Foreign women’s excess TFR (children per woman)(a) Contribution of foreign women to increase in overall TFR(b) Contribution of foreign women to increase in overall TFR (%)(c) 15.9 16.5 17.4 18.3 18.6 18.9 18.8 17.8 15.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.06 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.1 8.1 9.3 8.6 7.0 4.4

Contribution of foreign women to the overall TFR and to the total number of births in Greece

(a) Difference between lines 1 and 2 of Table 1.
(b) Difference between lines 1 and 3 of Table 1.
(c) Ratio between line 3 of Table 2 and line 3 of Table 1.
Sources: Authors’ estimates based on ELSTAT data (2014) and Eurostat data (2014a-2014f).
Figure 1

Percentage contribution of foreign women to overall TFR, Greece, 2004-2012

Figure 1

Percentage contribution of foreign women to overall TFR, Greece, 2004-2012

Sources: Authors’ estimates based on ELSTAT data (2014) and Eurostat data (2014a-2014f).

30The relative contribution of foreigners and nationals to the observed trends in the overall TFR is depicted in Table 3, decomposed in terms of “fertility behaviour” and the “population composition” effect. In the period 2004-2009, total fertility rose by 0.208 children per woman (+15.9%). Of this increase, 0.117 children per woman (8.9%) is attributable to Greek women and the remaining 0.091 children per woman (7.0%) to foreign women. In other words, Greek women account for more than half of the increase in overall fertility in the country over that period (56.3%) and foreign women for the remaining 43.7%.

31Distinguishing the effect of changes in population composition from the effect of changes in fertility behaviour, it seems that decreasing proportions of foreign women below age 30 had a negative impact on their contribution to overall fertility while changing proportions among those aged 30 or above had a positive effect. Hence, the net effect of population composition in that period was zero; the increasing contribution of foreigners to overall TFR was exclusively due to rising fertility rates among women aged 20-34.

Table 3

Decomposition of the percentage contributions of foreign and Greek women to TFR changes, 2004-2009 and 2009-2012

Table 3
Period 2004-2009 Percentage contribution of fertility behaviour and population composition to TFR change (as a percentage of 2004 TFR) Foreign women Greek women Fertility behaviour effect Population composition effect Total Fertility behaviour effect Population composition effect Total Overall population 15-19 0.5 –0.2 0.3 –0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 20-24 3.0 –0.2 2.8 –1.7 0.1 –1.6 1.2 25-29 2.1 –0.1 2.0 –1.6 0.1 –1.5 0.5 30-34 1.0 0.3 1.3 6.3 –0.4 5.9 7.3 35-39 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.8 –0.2 4.6 5.1 40-44 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.4 45-49 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 TFR 7.0 0.0 7.0 9.3 –0.4 8.9 15.9 TFR change (as percentage of 2009 TFR) Foreign women Greek women Fertility behaviour effect Population composition effect Total Fertility behaviour effect Population composition effect Total Overall population 15-19 –1.0 0.3 –0.7 –0.1 0.0 –0.1 –0.8 20-24 –3.5 1.0 –2.5 –0.7 –0.1 –0.8 –3.3 25-29 –1.8 0.7 –1.0 –0.8 –0.3 –1.1 –2.1 30-34 –0.6 0.0 –0.7 –1.4 0.0 –1.4 –2.0 35-39 –0.3 0.1 –0.2 –0.6 –0.1 –0.7 –0.9 40-44 –0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –0.1 –0.1 45-49 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TFR –7.3 2.2 –5.1 –3.5 –0.6 –4.1 –9.2

Decomposition of the percentage contributions of foreign and Greek women to TFR changes, 2004-2009 and 2009-2012

Sources: Authors’ estimates based on ELSTAT data (2014) and Eurostat data (2014a-2014f).

32Changes in the proportion of Greek women of reproductive age over that period had a slight negative effect whereas declining fertility of younger women (aged below 30) had an additional and measurable negative effect. However, these effects were more than counterbalanced by increasing fertility of women above age 30 and the overall net effect was positive. Hence, the increase in the TFR in the period 2004-2009 can be attributed to increasing fertility among foreign women aged 20-34 and among Greek women aged 30-44.

33The overall fertility decline of 0.139 children per woman (9.2%) over the period 2009-2012, was attributable more to foreign women (55.4%) than to nationals (44.6%). Of this decrease, 0.062 children per woman (4.1%) was due to nationals whereas the remaining 0.077 children per woman (5.1%) was due to foreigners. It seems that increases in the proportions of women aged 15-29 had the effect of pushing up overall fertility rates, while decreases in fertility, especially among women aged 20-29, had the opposite effect. Consequently, the net effect was a decline, attributable to changes in fertility behaviour, mitigated somewhat by the positive effect of changing population composition. Changing shares of Greek women aged 20-29 and 35-39 had a slight negative effect on their contribution to the overall TFR; these changes, coupled with declining fertility, intensified this negative effect. Hence, in this period likewise, the driving force behind TFR declines was the changing fertility behaviour of both Greek and foreign women.

IV – Discussion and conclusion

34The present study aims at estimating period fertility levels and trends among foreigners and nationals in Greece for the years 2004-2012. The results of the analysis indicate that for most of this period foreign fertility was above replacement level, and fluctuated over a wider range than Greek women’s fertility. However, the combined net effect of the share of foreign women in the Greek population and of foreign childbearing on the country’s TFR is quite moderate. By contrast, use of decomposition reveals that since 2004 foreign fertility has had a measurable effect on overall fertility trends, due more to changes in fertility behaviour than to increasing shares of foreign women in the overall female population of reproductive age.

35The changes in fertility of foreign and Greek women are fairly similar and explain the overall trends in the country’s TFR over the period under consideration. These trends take the form of a fertility increase which can be attributed to changes in tempo and, more specifically, to women “catching up” after an extended period of fertility postponement (Kotzamanis, 2012), followed by fertility decline, very likely attributable to the economic crisis in 2008 which led to high unemployment and hardship (Goldstein et al., 2013).

36The increase in the overall level of fertility over the first sub-period (2004-2009), is most likely the consequence of three factors: first, the recuperation of fertility among Greek women, mainly related to tempo considerations; second, an upward trend in foreign fertility due to changes in the ethnic composition of the foreign population, with an increasing proportion of women from Asian and African countries exhibiting higher fertility than other groups (i.e. Albanians) with longer duration of residence (Tragaki et al., 2015); and third, the rising net effect of foreign fertility on the country’s TFR which, according to our results, rose from 5.4% in 2004 to its highest level (9.3%) in 2009, the year in which the TFR of the total population peaked. The decline in the TFR of the total population over the subsequent period coincides with the economic recession and, according to our results, was driven by a much stronger decrease in fertility among foreigners than among Greek women. This finding is likely related to the greater vulnerability of foreign populations to unfavourable economic conditions, in particular to high risks of unemployment and poverty or social exclusion that affected foreign fertility more strongly than that of Greek women.

37Some limitations of the study should be considered. The analysis is hampered by limited data availability. First, though there is information on births by age of mother and detailed citizenship since 2004, information on the age-distribution of women by citizenship is unavailable (apart from census years). Further, figures on net migration by age, sex and citizenship (or even total numbers of net migrants by citizenship) which would allow estimation of the female population of reproductive ages by citizenship, are also unavailable. Second, there are no data on length of residence that might have helped us to answer questions on, for instance, the extent to which the increase in foreign fertility over 2004-2009 was linked to a recent influx of foreign women from high fertility countries, to increasing fertility among longer term foreigners, or to a “catching up” of births following immigration (disruption effect) among recent migrants. In addition, it might have been useful to determine whether the subsequent fertility decline is partly attributable to foreigners with a longer duration of residence who have adapted their fertility to the levels of the local population or whether it is wholly the consequence of economic hardship.

38Given that period fertility of foreign women, especially among those with longer durations of residence, has proved more vulnerable to the recent economic downturn than fertility of Greek women and that economic hardship persists, foreign fertility may continue to decline. In this context, it seems unlikely that the fertility outcomes of the foreign population will significantly modify overall fertility trends in the future. That said, we cannot foresee the extent of future migrant inflows, which will more likely originate in less developed African and Asian regions where fertility is high.

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the Hellenic Statistical Authority for providing the data. Helpful comments from four anonymous reviewers and by editors are gratefully acknowledged. We thank one of the reviewers who directed our attention to methodological issues discussed in this paper.

Appendix

Estimating the average female population by age and citizenship from 2004 onwards

39The following procedure was applied (Bagavos, 2015).

  • Step 1. The population of Greece (all citizenships combined) by single years of age and sex is projected using the cohort component method (Preston et al., 2001), from 2001 (the base year) to 2008. The projection is based on the observed age-specific fertility rates, official life tables and total net migration estimates provided by ELSTAT. and Eurostat (2014a, 2014b, 2014c) for the whole period 2001-2008. Estimates of the distribution of net migrants by gender and sex were obtained on the basis of the standard age-sex structure used by Eurostat (2014d) for making population projections.
  • Step 2. For the base year (2001) the relative distribution of the 2001 census population by age, sex and citizenship is applied to the structure of the estimated population of the country at the beginning of the year (Eurostat, 2014e) in order to obtain estimates of the Greek population by age and sex on 1 January 2001.
  • Step 3. Using the estimates of the Greek population by age and sex (Step 2) population projections for the period 2001-2008 are performed only for this group using the observed fertility and mortality schedules (Step 1), assuming that net migration of Greek persons is zero (negligible); this assumption is fairly reasonable and is predicated on the fact that Greece was a net immigration country before the economic recession (prior to 2009).
  • Step 4. The age/sex structure of the foreign population for the period 2001-2008 was estimated as the difference between the projected total and the projected Greek population by age and sex.
  • Step 5. For the period 2009-2013, data provided by Eurostat (2014f) on female population by age, sex and citizenship (foreigners vs. nationals) are used.

40To evaluate the precision of our estimates, we extended our projections to the period 2009-2013. Comparison of our estimates of the population by age and sex on 1 January over the period 2001-2013 with those of Eurostat (2014e) shows that the results are nearly identical as regards the total population as well as the female population of reproductive ages (15-49); in particular, regarding the latter, the relative difference ranges from 0.1% to 1%. However, it should be kept in mind that underestimation or overestimation of the total and/or the Greek populations will affect the estimated age and sex distribution of the foreign population, too.

Abstract

English

This study assesses the contribution of migrant childbearing to the overall fertility of a receiving country based on the case of Greece between 2004 and 2012. More specifically, the main aim of the paper is to evaluate the relative contribution of the “fertility behavior” of foreign women and of their share in each age-group to overall fertility in Greece. On the basis of population estimates and of births derived from vital statistics, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (TFRs) are calculated for foreign and Greek women (women born in Greece to Greek parents). The fertility of foreign women is much higher than that of Greek women for all years, although both groups exhibit similar fertility trends. In the period under consideration, the combined effect of foreign fertility and of the share of foreign women in the population increased overall TFR by between 0.06 children per woman (4.4%) and 0.14 children per woman (9.3%). The contribution of foreigners to changes in overall fertility over time is smaller, however. The driving force behind fertility changes is fertility behaviour; population composition effects are minor.

Keywords

  • fertility
  • foreign fertility
  • fertility behavior
  • composition effects
  • Greece
Français

Évaluer la contribution des femmes étrangères à la fécondité du moment en Grèce, 2004-2012

L’objectif de l’étude est d’évaluer la contribution de la fécondité des femmes étrangères à la fécondité générale à partir du cas grec entre 2004 et 2012. Plus précisément, il s’agit d’estimer la contribution respective du comportement de fécondité des femmes étrangères et de leur part dans chaque groupe d’âges de la population féminine, à la fécondité de la Grèce. Les taux de fécondité par âge et les indices conjoncturels de fécondité (ICF) sont calculés pour les femmes étrangères et les natives (femmes nées en Grèce de parents grecs) à partir d’estimations de la population et des statistiques de l’état civil des naissances. La fécondité des étrangères est largement supérieure à celle des natives pour toutes les années, mais les tendances sont similaires pour les deux groupes. Au cours de la période considérée, l’effet combiné de la fécondité des étrangères et de la part qu’elles représentent dans la population entraîne une hausse de l’ICF comprise entre 0,06 (+ 4,4 %) et 0,14 enfant par femme (+ 9,3 %). La contribution des étrangères à l’évolution dans le temps de la fécondité générale est en revanche plus marquée. Au total, les effets de composition ne jouent qu’un rôle mineur et le principal facteur à l’œuvre dans les variations de la fécondité est le comportement reproductif.

Español

Evaluar la contribución de las mujeres extranjeras a la fecundidad anual en Grecia, 2004-2012

El objetivo de este artículo es medir la contribución de las mujeres extranjeras a la fecundidad general en Grecia durante los años 2004 a 2012. De manera más precisa, se trata de estimar esa contribución respecto al comportamiento fecundo de las mujeres extranjeras de un lado, y a su peso en cada grupo de edad de la población femenina por otro lado. Las tasas de fecundidad por edad y los índices coyunturales de fecundidad (ICF) son calculados para las mujeres extranjeras y las nativas (mujeres nacidas en Grecia de padres griegos), a partir de estimaciones de la población y de las estadísticas del estado civil para los nacimientos. La fecundidad de las extranjeras es ampliamente superior a la de las nativas durante todo el periodo, pero las tendencias son comunes a los dos grupos. A lo largo del periodo considerado, el efecto combinado de la fecundidad de las extranjeras y de la parte que representan en la población produce una alza del ICF comprendida entre 0,6 (+4,4 %) y 0.14 (+9,3%) hijos por mujer. La contribución de las extranjeras a la evolución temporal de la fecundidad general es más pronunciada. En fin, los efectos de composición juegan un papel menor y el principal factor en las variaciones de la fecundidad es el comportamiento reproductivo.

Outline

  1. I - Background
  2. II - Data and methods
    1. 1 - Estimating the contribution of foreign women to annual TFR
    2. 2 - Decomposing the contribution of foreign women to changes in TFR between two years: fertility behaviour versus population composition
  4. III - Results
    1. 1 - Fertility levels and trends of Greek and foreign women, 2004-2012
    2. 2 - Contribution of foreign women to period fertility levels and changes over time
  6. IV - Discussion and conclusion

References

References

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Authors

Christos Bagavos
Panteion University, Greece.
Correspondence: Christos Bagavos, Panteion University, Department of Social Policy, 136, Syngrou Avenue, Athens 17671, Greece, tel.: +30 210 9201733.
christosbagavos@gmail.com
Georgia Verropoulou
University of Piraeus, Greece.
University of London, United Kingdom.
Cleon Tsimbos
University of Piraeus, Greece.
This is the latest publication of the author on cairn.
This is the latest publication of the author on cairn.
This is the latest publication of the author on cairn.
Uploaded on Cairn-int.info on 26/06/2018
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